Samuel Segev
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Political climate in Jordan boiling
What is going on in Jordan? For some time, the political climate in the kingdom has been boiling. In the last six months, King Abdullah has been forced to change his government three times, but demonstrations against the monarch continue. Luckily for him, there is no immediate danger of his overthrow.View Full Column | 05/15/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Syria beats back its rivals
TEL AVIV -- Syrian President Bashar Assad proved Monday once again that with the support of Russia and Iran, he is still able to politically defeat the United States, Turkey and the Persian Gulf countries. Based on a new "constitution" that was unilaterally approved last February, the Syrian people were asked Monday to elect 250 new members of parliament, from among 7,195 candidates in 15 electoral districts. The Syrian opposition boycotted the elections. So did the Western powers. But it really didn't matter.View Full Column | 05/8/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Election to resolve issues in Israel
TEL AVIV -- Suddenly, and without any advance notice, the Israeli domestic scene was thrown into disarray Sunday. Talk about the dangers of a nuclear Iran or plans for the revival of the Israeli-Palestinian peace talks were pushed aside. Instead, all parties began talking about new parliamentary elections, possibly in August or mid-October. Two issues brought about this sudden change: the abolition of Tal Law, which exempted thousands of ultra-religious Jews from military service or national civilian service; and the uncompromising position of most parties regarding necessary budget cuts in order to meet the requirements of the social unrest.View Full Column | 05/1/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Egypt-Israel tensions on the rise
TEL AVIV -- Israel celebrates its 64th year of independence Thursday greatly satisfied with its political stability and achievements in many fields. But Israel is also looking beyond scheduled June presidential elections in Egypt and wondering what its future relations will be with an Egypt dominated by the Muslim Brotherhood. Israel received an advance warning this week with Egypt's one-sided abrogation of its 2005 gas deal under which Cairo undertook to supply Israel with gas for 15 years at a fixed price, not withstanding changes in the world market.View Full Column | 04/25/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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American power in Middle East tested
TEL AVIV -- The nuclear conference that has concluded in Istanbul and the forthcoming meeting in Baghdad on May 24 are far more important than their declared goal -- preventing Iran from becoming a nuclear power. The real purpose of the gatherings, from an American perspective, is how to maintain American hegemony in a region where new forces are emerging and are seeking a slice of the cake that was owned until now by the U.S.View Full Column | 04/17/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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What will be on the table in Istanbul
TEL AVIV -- A meeting this Friday in Istanbul between the five permanent members of the UN Security Council plus Germany and Iran is probably one of the most important international events in decade. It will determine whether Iran is sincerely ready to compromise on its nuclear plans, or whether it will use the negotiations as a delaying tactic while continuing its plans to become a nuclear power and a regional leader.View Full Column | 04/10/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Mofaz ousts Livni, targets Netanyahu
TEL AVIV -- Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu began his fourth year in office this week facing a double challenge to his leadership, both in the domestic arena and in foreign affairs. For the past three years, Netanyahu headed one of the most stable governments in Israel. With a comfortable parliamentary majority, he was able to conduct an independent foreign policy that shifted the focus from the Palestinian issue to the dangers of Iran's nuclear program.View Full Column | 04/3/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Egyptian identity on table
TEL AVIV -- Less than two months before the post-Mubarak presidential elections in Egypt, both the Supreme Council of the Armed Forces and the Muslim Brotherhood are nearing a confrontation over two main points. The first is the identity of Egypt -- is it totally Islamist, or semi-secular? The second is the role of the military in Egypt's political system.View Full Column | 03/27/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Annan steps between rock and hard place in Syria
TEL AVIV -- The twin blasts Saturday in Damascus and a similar car bomb in Aleppo on Sunday opened a new phase in the Syrian insurgency. The blasts proved that despite the supremacy of the Syrian army, the Syrian opposition has moved into a new stage in its effort to topple the regime of President Bashar Assad. Those who carried out the attacks proved they were well-trained and well-equipped with the necessary intelligence and, more important, they proved they were ready to challenge Assad's regime in its strongest targets, its two intelligence agencies.View Full Column | 03/20/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Syrian referendum changes nothing
TEL AVIV -- A referendum on a new constitution for Syria Sunday changed nothing -- the opposition does not recognize the results and the proposed constitutional changes are so minor as to be meaningless. The White House has already described the referendum as "laughable." Berlin called it a "sham" and a "farce."View Full Column | 02/28/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Israel wise to heed American pressure
TEL-AVIV -- On the eve of the resumption of talks between the West and Iran over Iran's nuclear capabilities, the U.S. has resumed pressure on Israel to give diplomacy a chance. On the weekend, U.S. President Barack Obama dispatched National Security Advisor Tom Donilon for talks with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and his more-combative defence minister, Ehud Barak.View Full Column | 02/21/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Russian arms used in slaughter of civilians in Syria
TEL AVIV -- What to do about Syria? The double veto of Russia and China in the Security Council last week has confronted all concerned with a new reality -- a regional Sunni-led insurgency, supported by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, struggling against a Shiite-Alawite Syrian minority supported by Russia and Iran. According to intelligence available in Israel, Russia supplied the Syrian army with the artillery shells for the five-day shelling of rebel positions in the city of Homs. For Russia, the idea that Bashar Assad must go is not even on the table. Vitaly Churkin, Russian ambassador to the UN, said the Syrian opposition must start a dialogue with Bashar Assad's regime.View Full Column | 02/14/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Obama torn by conflicting allies
TEL AVIV -- U.S. President Barack Obama has shown once again how difficult it is for him to navigate among four of his closest allies regarding Syria and Iran. Israel and Saudi Arabia are pushing for a harsher reaction to Iran's continuing drive to acquire nuclear capability. At the same time, they are urging harsher steps against Syria.View Full Column | 02/7/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Time, it appears, is on Assad's side
TEL AVIV -- Amid continuing bloodshed and brutal massacres, the Arab League has taken the Syrian file to the UN Security Council. Tabled by Morocco, and supported by the U.S., France and Britain, the Arab League is seeking regime change in Syria as the only way to stop the massacres there.View Full Column | 02/1/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Peace treaty in peril
TEL AVIV -- Egypt inaugurated on Monday its newly elected and Muslim-dominated parliament that will redefine the role of Islam in Egypt's Second Republic. The emergence of political Islam began in Tunis, when a liberal Muslim scholar won the Oct. 23, 2011, elections. It was followed in Morocco on Nov. 25 and Monday was Egypt's turn.View Full Column | 01/24/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Israel seeks clarification of U.S. stance on Iran's 'capability'
TEL AVIV -- A visit to Israel this week by the chairman of the U.S. Joint Chiefs of Staff, Gen. Martin Dempsey, should help clarify two issues: the nature of Israeli-U.S. resolve to stop Iran's nuclear program; and, what exactly the U.S. perceives that program to be. Questions about resolve were raised by an American-Israeli statement that an upcoming joint military exercise had been postponed to the second half of 2012.View Full Column | 01/17/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Arab Spring deals Iran losing cards
TEL AVIV -- Iran has emerged as the "big loser" of the Arab Spring. When Iran saw the fall of the pro-western regimes in Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, it believed that its road to dominance in the Arab world was paved. But it soon discovered that the Arab masses were not eager to replace their autocratic and corrupt leaders with intolerant and more repressive Shiite Muslim leaders.View Full Column | 01/10/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Jordan makes a move
TEL AVIV — Amid much skepticism and with little expectations for a breakthrough, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators will meet today in Amman, Jordan, in an effort to resume negotiations. This is a personal victory for Jordan’s King Abdullah who succeeded where the United States, Europe, Russia and the United Nations failed. It is also a personal victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who insisted on direct negotiations with the Palestinians and refused to negotiate through international intermediaries.View Full Column | 01/3/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Jordan makes a move
TEL AVIV -- Amid much skepticism and with little expectations for a breakthrough, Israeli and Palestinian negotiators will meet today in Amman, Jordan, in an effort to resume negotiations. This is a personal victory for Jordan's King Abdullah who succeeded where the United States, Europe, Russia and the United Nations failed. It is also a personal victory for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who insisted on direct negotiations with the Palestinians and refused to negotiate through international intermediaries.View Full Column | 01/3/2012 1:00 AM | 0
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Israel appraises its options
TEL AVIV -- The American military withdrawal from Iraq, and the perceived weakening of the American influence in the region, has forced the Israeli government to update its strategic estimate for the year 2012. Israel estimates that the current unrest in the Arab world will continue through 2012 -- with a special focus on Egypt, Iraq, Syria and Jordan.View Full Column | 12/21/2011 1:00 AM | 0
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Turkey thrown for loop
TEL-AVIV -- Quietly and without any public admission, Turkey had reversed its Middle Eastern policies as defined in the 2010 Red Book. The 2010 Red Book, which is revised every five years, removed Syria and Iran from the list of countries that pose a threat to Turkish national interests. Instead, it stated that the region's instability stems from Israel's actions and policies and became the "bible" of the Justice and Development party, which started its "zero problems" policy with its Arab neighbours.View Full Column | 12/13/2011 1:00 AM | 0
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Cold War returns to Mideast
TEL AVIV -- There are growing signs of a renewed Cold War between Russia and the United States over the future paths of Iran and Syria in the Middle East. For years, Iran has been pursuing both a nuclear program and the development of long-range missiles while building a heavy-water reactor for "research purposes" that is also capable of producing fuel for a plutonium bomb.View Full Column | 12/6/2011 1:00 AM | 0
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Democracy phase one in Egypt
TEL AVIV -- Israel is following with great interest, but also with some concern, the first phase of the parliamentary elections in Egypt, the first since the ousting of Hosni Mubarak in February. The concern was underlined Sunday when the gas pipeline from Egypt through Sinai to Israel was sabotaged for the second time in three days and the ninth time since the beginning of the Arab Spring. The frequent disruption of the Egyptian gas to Israel is forcing the Netanyahu government to look for other gas sources to assure an uninterrupted supply to its expanding electrical industry.View Full Column | 11/29/2011 1:00 AM | 0
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Egypt's violence has repercussions
After three days of increasingly violent demonstrations, Egypt's interim civilian government submitted its resignation to the country's ruling military council on Monday, bowing to the demands of the protesters and marking a crisis of legitimacy for the military-led government. The move followed the most sustained and bloodiest challenge to the military's hold on power since the fall of Hosni Mubarak as demonstrators clashed with security forces around Tahrir Square and across the country. Egyptian troops had been heralded as saviours when their generals ushered out Mubarak on Feb. 11, but on Sunday they led a new push to clear the square. The health ministry said Monday at least 23 people had been killed. Since Saturday, more than 1,500 people had been wounded, the ministry said.View Full Column | 11/22/2011 1:00 AM | 0
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Hands off Syria, Arabs tell Turks
TEL AVIV -- The Arab League decision to suspend Syria's membership is one of the most important decisions since the beginning of the Arab Spring over a year ago. On the face of it, the Arab League decision affects Syria's domestic policies only. In reality, if the suspension grows into an expulsion, it could have regional ramifications as well. Arab foreign ministers are due to meet in Rabat Wednesday to discuss whether Syria's suspension becomes permanent.View Full Column | 11/15/2011 1:00 AM | 0


